Marcello Estevão · Candice Reddy · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Sub Saharan Africa faces a changing financing landscape as trade tensions intensify and traditional donors reduce aid. Investment from China, India, Gulf countries and African investors opens new possibilities in minerals, renewable energy and digital infrastructure. Realizing those gains depends on governance, regional integration and credible fiscal policies that can attract lasting capital amid greater volatility.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
National employment indicators increasingly conceal differences across US states. Diverging participation, unemployment and immigration patterns change how labor market slack should be interpreted. Reduced arrivals of foreign workers place uneven pressure on labor supply and distort wage and unemployment signals. These regional differences make comparisons with earlier cycles less reliable and complicate Federal Reserve policy calibration.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Borrowing against securities can accelerate a market correction without predicting when one will begin. This analysis emphasizes changes in margin debt rather than its record level, tracing how collateral losses and forced deleveraging interact with tightening liquidity. A US unwind can transmit stress abroad through emerging market currencies, credit spreads and capital flows.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Bonds dominated emerging market portfolio inflows in August, attracting $41.5 billion of the $44.8 billion total reported in September. Equities received just $3.3 billion. The positive headline therefore masks weaker equity momentum and tighter valuation constraints, highlighting the importance of distinguishing the composition of inflows from their aggregate size.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Private US hiring had slowed sharply by August 2025, with employment gains increasingly confined to healthcare and education. Immigration restrictions reduced labor supply, helping keep unemployment low even as job creation weakened. Inflation also eroded real income growth. Together, these forces left the Federal Reserve balancing a softer labor market against price pressure from tariffs.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Tariff costs begin reaching import and producer prices as inventory cushions run down, while immigration restrictions complicate the reading of US employment data. Manufacturing and private construction weaken even as overall demand appears resilient. This August 2025 assessment asks whether renewed inflation could arrive before growth slows enough to give the Federal Reserve room to ease.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Equities led July’s $55.5 billion in emerging market portfolio inflows, taking $39.2 billion compared with $16.3 billion for debt in the August release. The strong total reflects supportive conditions, but the outlook remains sensitive to policy changes and dollar movements that could rapidly reverse investor momentum.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Tariffs create different inflation problems across economies. Higher goods costs affect the United States and its trading partners, while slower growth and stronger currencies ease pressures elsewhere. Emerging market central banks respond unevenly, with Brazil standing out for tightening through June 2025. The Federal Reserve faces its own conflict between tariff inflation and weakening employment.