Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Digital production is becoming a dividing line among emerging markets. Only a small group can export digital activity at scale, with technology services the most dynamic component. Foreign direct investment is already responding to this capacity, while portfolio flows remain more closely tied to liquidity and macroeconomic conditions. Digital export strength may increasingly influence where lasting investment goes.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
A weaker exchange rate does not necessarily mean a weaker international role for the dollar. Better emerging market fundamentals and easier dollar funding support local currencies and returns, while gold reserve valuations can exaggerate apparent diversification. Meanwhile, stablecoins extend informal dollar use. The analysis argues that dollar dominance is adapting to new channels rather than simply receding.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Equities played a larger role in October’s modest recovery in emerging market portfolio inflows. The November tracker puts the total at $26.9 billion, with $12.9 billion entering equities as debt inflows slowed to $14 billion. China showed a smaller version of that divergence: equity flows edged upward while debt flows weakened.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Growth across the United States, Europe and Japan rests on increasingly narrow sources of strength. US investment in artificial intelligence masks softer labor and demand conditions, Europe struggles with weak investment, and Japan normalizes policy cautiously. Lower US yields may help emerging markets, but sustained inflows depend on credible fiscal and macroeconomic frameworks rather than favorable financing alone.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun · Ivan Burgara · Leila Hamilton · Anduin Li / Institute of International Finance
Artificial intelligence and digital payments are moving technological disruption into the center of macroeconomic analysis. Introducing a series on growth, trade and capital allocation, this overview examines early signals from US investment spending and international financial flows. AI investment is already contributing to activity, although its magnitude remains difficult to estimate, making consistent measurement essential.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
US inflation remains difficult to dislodge from the 3 percent range in this October 2025 assessment. Shelter and healthcare sustain services inflation, while goods prices follow divergent paths. Firm spending and elevated household inflation expectations complicate cautious Federal Reserve easing. The uneven composition of price increases makes apparent progress toward the target less convincing.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Bolivia’s adjustment problem extends beyond its headline budget deficit. The October 2025 assessment places the deficit near 20 percent of GDP when state enterprises are included, alongside depleted external buffers and rigid spending. It forecasts weak growth and a break in the currency peg within a year, illustrating the difficult choices facing the incoming government.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Debt inflows kept emerging market portfolio investment positive in September despite renewed equity withdrawals. The October tracker records $26.2 billion in net inflows, combining $31.1 billion entering debt with $4.9 billion leaving equities. China outflows and valuation constraints signal vulnerabilities beneath the relative stability of aggregate debt demand.