Bloomberg Línea · Mention Original title: ¿Por qué América Latina sentiría más el impacto de la posible prohibición de exportaciones de diésel de EE.UU.?
In Bloomberg Línea's reporting on a possible US diesel export restriction, Jonathan Fortun of the IIF explains why Latin America has few immediate alternative suppliers. He argues that scarce cargoes would be allocated through price, leaving importers facing higher subsidy costs, rationing or negotiations for access. The pressure would differ across Mexico, Brazil and Bolivia according to their import exposure and fiscal room.
Emerging market governments are issuing foreign currency bonds at a record pace despite the Iran war, higher global interest rates and a stronger dollar. Jonathan Fortun tells the Financial Times that investors increasingly see the asset class as safer. He distinguishes gross issuance from fresh financing, noting that only $72 billion of this year’s total will represent new money rather than refinancing. The reporting also examines the shift toward euro borrowing and efforts to rebuild foreign exchange reserves.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Marcello Estevão and Jonathan Fortun argue that higher US long term yields primarily reflect the real returns investors demand, rather than a sharp rise in inflation compensation. Persistent federal borrowing adds to financing pressures across the economy, but markets are not visibly imposing a larger Treasury specific premium than at the start of the year. Refinancing older debt at higher rates will continue to lift federal interest costs even if yields stabilize, while deficits before interest payments make the debt outlook more sensitive to growth and interest rates.
Bloomberg Línea · Mention Original title: ¿Hasta cuánto llegará la inflación en Bolivia? La eliminación del subsidio al diésel impacta las proyecciones
Bolivia’s removal of its diesel subsidy creates new inflation risks through transport fares, social disruption and the parallel exchange rate. Jonathan Fortun puts December 2026 annual inflation at 8% to 12% in his base case, with risks tilted upward. A rise to 20% would require a combination of higher fares, conflict and a parallel exchange rate approaching Bs16 per dollar. He argues that subsidy reform was unavoidable given depleted reserves and monetary financing, but that delaying it has made the adjustment more difficult.
Japan’s rate increase failed to strengthen the yen. Jonathan Fortun explains how negative real rates, expectations of slower tightening and cheaper currency risk can outweigh a narrower interest rate gap with the United States. The article also examines what yen financed investments mean for Latin American currencies.
Venezuela’s falling bond spread reflects expectations of debt recovery rather than a normal borrowing cost. Jonathan Fortun explains that political developments and oil agreements have raised the value investors assign to unpaid obligations, without establishing an equivalent improvement in the government’s current payment capacity. Restructuring terms, competing creditor claims and a return to voluntary borrowing remain decisive.
Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · María Paola Figueroa / Institute of International Finance
Fiscal credibility shapes borrowing costs through different channels across Latin America. Jonathan Fortun, Martín Castellano and María Paola Figueroa contrast Brazil’s high domestic financing costs with Mexico’s sovereign repricing ahead of a rating downgrade. In Colombia, lower spreads already reflect expectations of political and fiscal improvement, leaving the country exposed if those expectations are not met. The comparison places institutional strength and credibility alongside debt levels when assessing sovereign risk.
Emerging markets received $11.3 billion in portfolio inflows in August, almost entirely through debt, while equity investment remained weak. Investing.com cites Jonathan Fortun’s assessment that continued inflows despite rising US long term yields point to investors selecting emerging market assets on their own merits. The article examines the contrast between resilient debt demand and a slower overall pace of inflows.