Perspectives connected to the research.
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Fortun discusses weak investment outside China and the risks from uneven pandemic recoveries, Omicron, higher US rates and a stronger dollar.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun's assessment of how currency depreciation, anticipated Federal Reserve tightening and pandemic uncertainty affected November portfolio flows.
View detailsHigh public debt and very low bond yields coexisted in Japan under sustained central bank support. The December 2021 comparison asks whether the euro area was moving toward a similar configuration, as the European Central Bank’s role expanded and foreign government bond holdings declined. It presents an emerging parallel between the two monetary systems, rather than a completed convergence.
Read the workFortun links the slowdown in emerging-market portfolio inflows to weaker currencies, expectations of earlier Federal Reserve tightening and concern over a new coronavirus variant.
View detailsTurkey’s November 2021 currency selloff resembled the 2018 crisis in scale but occurred with a stronger external balance. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Ugras Ulku attribute the pressure to continued rate cuts, changing market psychology and the reversal of speculative inflows. They interpret the fall as overshooting and retain their contemporary fair value estimate of 9.50 lira per dollar.
Read the workThe safe haven role of US Treasuries depends partly on the durability of foreign demand. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue in November 2021 that dollar strength reduced foreign central banks’ need to intervene and accumulate Treasury holdings. Persistently weak inflows could leave the market more exposed to global shocks and require renewed Federal Reserve support.
Read the workThe authors examine how central-bank asset purchases can suppress sovereign yields and obscure fiscal constraints, focusing on the euro area's policy-normalization risks.
Read the workDebt drove emerging market portfolio inflows in October 2021, attracting $20.1 billion of the $24.9 billion total. Jonathan Fortun reports $4.8 billion entering equities overall, while Chinese stocks alone received $7.3 billion. That contrast reveals offsetting equity withdrawals outside China beneath the positive aggregate.
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