Perspectives connected to the research.
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Fortun discusses pandemic-era digitalization with Brad Carr and Conan French, covering competition, cloud services, digital identity and the policy implications of digital money.
View detailsYield curve control helped the Bank of Japan contain yen appreciation in 2016 by shifting attention away from fears of government bond scarcity. By September 2020, however, the framework constrained policy while other central banks eased aggressively. With larger fiscal deficits easing scarcity concerns, the analysis argued for returning to quantitative and qualitative easing. This is the policy recommendation made at that time.
Read the workEmerging market activity returned to expansion in Jonathan Fortun’s September 2020 growth tracker as trade improved and business surveys recovered. Accommodative monetary policy supported the rebound, but the assessment remained cautious: the initial reopening boost would fade, labor market disruption could restrain consumption, and firms were cutting investment. Purchasing managers’ surveys pointed to further recovery, with considerable uncertainty about differences across regions.
Read the workForeign withdrawals from local government bonds persisted after the initial pandemic shock. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau show how some emerging economies offset those losses by borrowing internationally, while others faced a net reduction in foreign funding. Their September 2020 assessment separates local bond flows from governments’ broader access to external finance.
Read the workWhy did the pandemic imply a deeper global recession than the financial crisis? The September 2020 forecast projected a 3.8% world contraction, compared with 0.4% in 2009, attributing most of the difference to China and India. China lacked an infrastructure stimulus comparable to 2009, while India faced a sharp lockdown contraction rather than its earlier expansion, weakening the outlook for other emerging economies.
Read the workWeak growth can leave emerging markets exposed to contagion even when external financing is not their only vulnerability. This September 2020 assessment identifies limited funding buffers alongside a lack of room for policy support, highlighting Brazil, Mexico and South Africa among economies where those constraints could amplify financial stress.
Read the workExamines whether persistent weak demand and unequal financial conditions left more economic slack in eurozone periphery economies than conventional output-gap estimates suggested before the pandemic.
Read the workSri Lanka faced a widening current account deficit and difficult external bond repayments in this August 2020 assessment. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors identified substantial financing gaps across several scenarios, arguing that large support from official lenders would probably be needed. They stressed that such assistance could come with demanding adjustment conditions, connecting the external funding shortfall to the policy choices required to address it.
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