Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
Exchange rate changes alone can misrepresent the pressure on emerging market currencies during a crisis. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks combine currency movements with foreign reserve losses to compare the COVID shock in April 2020. Their exchange market pressure indices suggest that observed falls in the Turkish lira and Egyptian pound understated the underlying strain, while Mexico’s larger peso decline reflected more pressure being absorbed directly by the exchange rate.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
Current account adjustment did not eliminate emerging markets’ funding pressures at the start of the pandemic. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau examine debt repayments relative to reserves, highlighting South Africa, Turkey and Ukraine in their April 2020 assessment. They argue that the scale of IMF emergency lending without conditions was too small relative to the financing needs they identified.
Bloomberg examines the risks of monetary and fiscal stimulus in emerging economies facing capital flight and foreign-currency debt. Jonathan Fortun contrasts the speed of pandemic-era outflows with the more prolonged withdrawals experienced during the global financial crisis.
Coverage of a report by Fortun and Benjamin Hilgenstock describes the record withdrawal of foreign portfolio capital from emerging markets in March 2020.
A report coauthored by Fortun and Robin Brooks cuts the IIF's 2020 global growth forecast and discusses the particular vulnerability of the euro area and already-weakened emerging economies.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
The rapid escalation of the pandemic prompted another downgrade to the global outlook in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks cut their growth forecast below 1% as falling oil prices, credit stress and disrupted capital markets amplified the shock. They then expected first half recessions in the United States, euro area and Japan, followed by a recovery later that year.