Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · María Paola Figueroa / Institute of International Finance
Fiscal credibility shapes borrowing costs through different channels across Latin America. Jonathan Fortun, Martín Castellano and María Paola Figueroa contrast Brazil’s high domestic financing costs with Mexico’s sovereign repricing ahead of a rating downgrade. In Colombia, lower spreads already reflect expectations of political and fiscal improvement, leaving the country exposed if those expectations are not met. The comparison places institutional strength and credibility alongside debt levels when assessing sovereign risk.
Coverage of an IIF report coauthored by Fortun examines Brazil's fiscal package, near-term risk premiums and the need for a credible medium-term fiscal outlook.
Fortun discusses the expected return of capital to emerging markets in 2021, with Asia leading the recovery, in Brazilian reporting on how fiscal policy and reforms could affect flows to Brazil.
UOL Economia (BBC News Brasil) · Quoted expert Original title: Após 'fuga', capital estrangeiro volta ao Brasil - mas país está entre últimas opções dos investidores
In analysis prepared for BBC News Brasil, Fortun compares Brazil's portfolio-investment recovery with other emerging economies and discusses fiscal credibility and sustainability.