Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · María Paola Figueroa / Institute of International Finance
Fiscal credibility shapes borrowing costs through different channels across Latin America. Jonathan Fortun, Martín Castellano and María Paola Figueroa contrast Brazil’s high domestic financing costs with Mexico’s sovereign repricing ahead of a rating downgrade. In Colombia, lower spreads already reflect expectations of political and fiscal improvement, leaving the country exposed if those expectations are not met. The comparison places institutional strength and credibility alongside debt levels when assessing sovereign risk.
Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert Original title: ¿Por qué Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador y Bolivia tienen el peor riesgo país de Latinoamérica? Las razones
Fortun explains how rising US Treasury yields reach Latin American local bond markets and why investor bases, duration and carry matter for the transmission.
Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert Original title: Brecha de la deuda pública se amplía: estos países de América Latina están entre los más endeudados del mundo
Bloomberg Línea reports that Bolivia, Brazil and Suriname rank among the 30 most indebted economies in the world, based on IMF data compiled by the IIF. Jonathan Fortun said the region stopped behaving as a bloc, since what worsened is the dispersion between countries, not average debt. He argued Bolivia faces a payments problem rather than a debt problem, and flagged Ecuador as looking comfortable at 52.8% of GDP when it is not.
Bloomberg Línea reports that Bolivia, Brazil and Suriname rank among the 30 economies with the highest public debt relative to GDP, based on IMF data analyzed by the IIF. Jonathan Fortun said the region no longer acts as a bloc, since what worsened is the dispersion between countries rather than average debt. He said the IMF projects Brazil's debt rising to 106.5% of GDP in 2031, a slow deterioration rather than a crisis, and described Mexico's tension as cost and contingent liabilities.
Bloomberg Línea reports that Latin American banks earned US$ 88.9 billion in 2025, up 31%, according to a Felaban report. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF said net interest margins at large regional banks reached 5.5% versus 3% for emerging market peers excluding China, a gap he called too large to be cyclical. He also said it seems unlikely a 31% profit rise will repeat, with the IIF expecting profits to normalize.