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August 5, 2026

Stuck in the Loop, Part VIII: The Zeros Came Off Last

Fortun contrasts Bolivia's historical currency redenomination with its current exchange-rate adjustment, using an equilibrium-rate framework to argue that nominal change can precede deeper economic repair.

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August 1, 2026

Stuck in the Loop, Part VII: The Same Thursday, Again

Fortun contrasts Bolivia's exchange-rate announcements and IMF staff agreement with limited usable reserves, arguing that simultaneous policy headlines do not by themselves resolve the external constraint.

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July 9, 2026

Stuck in the Loop, Part VI: The Day Nothing Changed

Fortun assesses Bolivia's new market-referenced official exchange rate and bank selling limits, asking whether the framework can clear the currency market or preserve rationing and parallel pricing.

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June 20, 2026

Stuck in the Loop, Part V: The Cost of Buying Time

Fortun estimates the economic costs of prolonged Bolivian blockades and explains how lost output, disrupted logistics and higher household prices narrow the space for stabilization.

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June 7, 2026

Stuck in the Loop, Part IV: The Country They Keep Misreading

Fortun challenges outside interpretations of Bolivia centered on commodities and protest, arguing that inherited political institutions and contested state authority shape the reform crisis.

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May 19, 2026

Stuck in the Loop, Part III: The Bond, the Street, and the Ghosts

Fortun examines Bolivia's bond-market return before an IMF agreement, arguing that fuel costs, inflation, blockades and entrenched political networks complicate the sequence of stabilization.

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January 7, 2026

Stuck in the Loop, Part II: A Window That Opens Too Soon

Fortun distinguishes renewed investor appetite from durable stabilization, examining domestic debt, scarce liquid reserves and the risks of borrowing abroad before restoring fiscal credibility.

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December 22, 2025

Stuck in the Loop, Part I: December Is Not Neutral

Fortun argues that Bolivia's fuel-subsidy reform needs a broader fiscal anchor and that implementing it during December's seasonal demand peak intensifies inflation and uncertainty.

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