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Bolivia’s IMF program has advanced on exchange rate reform and central bank financing, but fuel pricing remains its hardest political test. Jonathan Fortun examines how currency depreciation and import costs have eroded earlier subsidy reforms, arguing that postponement can shift the adjustment from higher pump prices to shortages. The essay connects reform sequencing with the credibility of the 2027 budget.
View detailsFortun contrasts Bolivia's historical currency redenomination with its current exchange-rate adjustment, using an equilibrium-rate framework to argue that nominal change can precede deeper economic repair.
View detailsFortun contrasts Bolivia's exchange-rate announcements and IMF staff agreement with limited usable reserves, arguing that simultaneous policy headlines do not by themselves resolve the external constraint.
View detailsFortun assesses Bolivia's new market-referenced official exchange rate and bank selling limits, asking whether the framework can clear the currency market or preserve rationing and parallel pricing.
View detailsFortun estimates the economic costs of prolonged Bolivian blockades and explains how lost output, disrupted logistics and higher household prices narrow the space for stabilization.
View detailsFortun challenges outside interpretations of Bolivia centered on commodities and protest, arguing that inherited political institutions and contested state authority shape the reform crisis.
View detailsFortun examines Bolivia's bond-market return before an IMF agreement, arguing that fuel costs, inflation, blockades and entrenched political networks complicate the sequence of stabilization.
View detailsFortun distinguishes renewed investor appetite from durable stabilization, examining domestic debt, scarce liquid reserves and the risks of borrowing abroad before restoring fiscal credibility.
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