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Fortun argues that Bolivia's fiscal adjustment faces severe political and employment constraints, challenging bond-market optimism about a straightforward post-election turnaround.
View detailsFortun argues that losses at state enterprises deepen Bolivia’s fiscal financing gap, while declining gas exports, scarce reserves and informality limit its adjustment options. He contrasts these constraints with Argentina’s and examines the political obstacles to fiscal reform.
View detailsWriting in April 2017, Jonathan Fortun explains how reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could tighten financial conditions alongside interest rate increases. The assessment anticipated asset runoff later that year and removed one rate increase from its 2018 forecast to account for that additional restraint. It also identified changes in the Fed’s Board as a risk to consistent policy communication.
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