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Los indicadores en tiempo real mostraban una salida excepcionalmente intensa de capital emergente al agravarse la pandemia en marzo de 2020. Jonathan Fortun y Sergi Lanau comparan estos movimientos con crisis mundiales y asiáticas anteriores. Anticipaban pérdidas de reservas y menores déficits corrientes a medida que se reducía el acceso al financiamiento externo.
Resumen
Real time indicators showed an exceptionally severe flight of capital from emerging markets as the pandemic escalated in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau compare the outflows with earlier global and Asian crises. They anticipated reserve losses and narrower current account deficits as access to external financing contracted.
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Jonathan Fortun, Sergi Lanau (2020). Economic Views: The COVID-19 Shock to EM Flows. Institute of International Finance.