Global Macro Views: How bad will the 2021 EM Flows Tantrum be?

Sobre este trabajo

El aumento de los rendimientos estadounidenses ya provocaba fuertes salidas emergentes en marzo de 2021. Robin Brooks y Jonathan Fortun distinguen, sin embargo, ese episodio del de 2013: las entradas previas habían sido menores y las cuentas corrientes y tipos de cambio reales estaban mejor posicionados. Esas condiciones iniciales sustentaban su visión de un tropiezo antes que un colapso sistémico.

Resumen

Rising US yields were already triggering substantial emerging market outflows in March 2021. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun nevertheless distinguish that episode from the 2013 taper tantrum: previous inflows had been smaller, and current accounts and real exchange rates were better positioned. Those initial conditions supported their view that the disruption would remain a setback rather than a systemic collapse.