Fortun discusses renewed emerging-market inflows alongside continuing withdrawals from Chinese debt. The report contrasts regional investor demand in May.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Could euro area inflation turn into a wage and price spiral? Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun compare broadly shared price increases with subdued negotiated wage growth across much of the periphery. Their May 2023 analysis interprets that divergence as evidence of remaining labor market slack and a stronger role for supply shocks, making an aggregate spiral unlikely.
Fortun discusses fading benefits from China's reopening and warns that market disruption and political risks could temper subsequent emerging-market inflows.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Emerging markets attracted $9.8 billion in portfolio investment during April 2023. Jonathan Fortun separates $7.7 billion entering debt markets from $2.1 billion entering equities. Chinese equities received $3.8 billion, exceeding the overall equity total and revealing offsetting withdrawals elsewhere.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Financial sanctions can have different effects on countries that need foreign capital and those earning external surpluses. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine how Russia’s 2022 energy windfall supported access to foreign currency despite sanctions. Their May 2023 assessment links that buffer to the rapid easing of domestic financial conditions and the economy’s capacity to sustain the war.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Brazil’s expanding trade surplus and Turkey’s repeated credit booms point to different currency valuation pressures. This April 2023 assessment defends the Brazilian real estimate despite persistent market weakness and explains how Turkish credit expansion had weakened the lira’s fair value through larger external deficits. A change in Turkey’s growth model was presented as a possibility around the forthcoming election.