2021年11月2日
Tighter policies hit stocks as EM flows slow in October - IIF
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Fortun discusses how tighter policy conditions weighed on emerging-market equities while portfolio inflows slowed in October.
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研究から広がる視点と考察。
主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。
922 件
2021年10月28日IIF
Global Macro Views: Supply Disruptions signal US Overheating
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Exceptionally long delivery times and large price increases in the United States pointed to strong demand as well as supply constraints in October 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle connect this pattern to unusually large fiscal support. They interpret the disruption as evidence of overheating and retain a 2022 core inflation forecast above the Federal Reserve’s projection at the time.
論文を読む2021年10月21日IIF
Global Macro Views: In Defense of Currency Devaluations
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The report reviews large, sustained real currency depreciations since 1980 and their relationship with export volumes, imports and current-account adjustment.
論文を読む2021年10月21日
Foreign investors fled when Turkey began cutting rates -IIF data
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Fortun connects foreign selling of Turkish debt to uncertainty over the lira and rising perceptions of risk after the central bank began cutting interest rates. Reuters also examines how the policy shift interrupted an earlier recovery in foreign equity flows.
詳細を見る2021年10月14日IIF
Global Macro Views: The Bond Market Sell-Off
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The October 2021 bond selloff differed from the rise in yields earlier that year. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find increases spread more broadly across maturities, with a smaller rise in real yields. Greater sensitivity to positive economic surprises suggested renewed focus on recovery and a movement toward, though still short of, conditions seen during the 2013 taper tantrum.
論文を読む2021年10月5日IIF
IIF Capital Flows Tracker - October 2021
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
This monthly tracker reports September emerging-market portfolio inflows, separating equity and debt investment and identifying the contribution of Chinese equities.
論文を読む2021年9月21日IIF
Economic Views: EM Fiscal Tightening Ahead
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Ambitious fiscal consolidation plans faced implementation risks as emerging economies began withdrawing pandemic stimulus. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau examine planned deficit reductions for 2022 and 2023, including difficult cuts to primary spending. Their September 2021 assessment anticipated delays in several countries, especially where targets implied spending below levels before the pandemic.
論文を読む2021年9月16日IIF
Global Macro Views: The EM Terms of Trade Puzzle
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Higher commodity prices were improving exporters’ terms of trade in September 2021 without delivering the currency gains seen after the global financial crisis. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors examine this disconnect in Brazil and other commodity exporters, including Australia. Its breadth challenges an explanation based solely on Brazilian political risk and raises a broader question about why stronger export prices were failing to lift exchange rates.
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