Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Real time indicators showed an exceptionally severe flight of capital from emerging markets as the pandemic escalated in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau compare the outflows with earlier global and Asian crises. They anticipated reserve losses and narrower current account deficits as access to external financing contracted.
The article cites Fortun and Benjamin Hilgenstock's IIF analysis of the abrupt deterioration in emerging-market investment flows as the pandemic spread.
Coverage of a study by Fortun and Robin Brooks explores the relationship between credit expansion and economic activity in Brazil and other emerging economies.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Repeated credit expansions supported Turkey’s growth while weakening its external balance. Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Ugras Ulku trace how the 2017 boom widened the current account deficit ahead of the 2018 sudden stop, and how renewed lending in early 2019 again worsened external dynamics. Writing in February 2020, they warned that another expansion appeared underway, adding balance of payments risks with likely smaller growth benefits.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Weak investment threatened to make the emerging market growth slowdown more persistent in January 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks survey investment across emerging economies and find aggregate growth in investment near zero. Turkey, Argentina and Mexico showed especially pronounced weakness, linking the broader stagnation debate to the accumulation of productive capacity.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Weak emerging market growth reflected two different problems: acute crises and a more persistent investment slowdown. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks distinguish these groups in their January 2020 assessment. They focus on Mexico and South Africa, where weak investment risked turning a recent slowdown into a structural constraint on growth.