研究・掲載記事を検索

Institute of International Finance · ポッドキャスト・ラジオ

FRT Episode 44 – Japanese Edition

IIFのFRTシリーズ初の日本語エピソードで、ジョナサン・フォルトゥンとJunichi Fujimoriが金融のデジタル化を議論する。データをめぐる政策、クラウドサービス、機械学習、デジタルID、デジタル通貨が主なテーマとなる。個々の技術を切り離さず、金融サービスを支えるデータや本人確認の仕組みと合わせて考える対談である。フォルトゥンの議論を日本語で直接聞ける音声コンテンツとして紹介する。

IIF Flows Alerts: Trade Tantrum 2.0

Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a reversal signal in emerging market portfolio flows on August 6, 2019. Gregory Basile and Jonathan Fortun stress that the withdrawal extended broadly across emerging markets. A bilateral trade shock was therefore transmitting through international investment beyond the two economies at its center.

Economic Views: Debt Sustainability in EM

Boban Markovic · Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Debt sustainability risks differed sharply across emerging markets in July 2019. Boban Markovic, Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau distinguish high and rising debt in Brazil and South Africa from refinancing pressure linked to large debt service in Egypt, Lebanon and Pakistan. Their systematic assessment highlights fiscal vulnerabilities beyond headline debt ratios alone.

Global Macro Views: Why is the Dollar not Falling?

Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts did not weaken the dollar against other major currencies in July 2019. Gregory Basile, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks identify simultaneous easing signals from other central banks and a reduced exchange rate response to interest differentials. Both mechanisms limited the currency impact of a more accommodative Fed outlook.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Flows to EM Recover

Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

A recovery in Chinese equities helped emerging market portfolio inflows reach $40.8 billion in June 2019, their strongest reading in five months. Gregory Basile and Jonathan Fortun distinguish $12.6 billion of equity investment from $28.2 billion in debt. The broader net capital flow measure recorded outflows in May, highlighting the difference between periods and coverage.

Economic Views: EM External Financing Needs

Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Smaller current account deficits did not eliminate emerging markets’ external financing risks in June 2019. Large debt repayments still warranted caution, particularly in Turkey and South Africa. The assessment also identified resident capital outflows as a vulnerability in Turkey and Argentina, where import compression had improved the current account without removing financing pressures.

Global Macro Views: Nonsense Output Gaps and the Phillips Curve

Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Low underlying inflation challenges estimates that treat much of the euro area periphery’s unemployment as structural. Gregory Basile, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks use the Phillips curve to compare unemployment gaps with inflation outcomes. Their June 2019 analysis argues that conventional measures understate remaining economic slack and overstate structural unemployment in those economies.

IIF Flows Alerts: EM Asia Capital Flows Recover

Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。

Recovering equity investment in emerging Asia triggered an IIF portfolio flow surge alert on June 3, 2019. Gregory Basile and Jonathan Fortun identify China as a key driver of the rebound. The recovery followed trade tensions that had produced the largest emerging market capital outflow in six months.