研究から広がる視点と考察。
主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。
923 件
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Fortun and fellow IIF economist Greg Basile connect renewed capital outflows across emerging Asia to escalating US–China trade tensions, while noting more resilient bond investment.
詳細を見る英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Improving global growth signals and a more accommodative Federal Reserve did not translate into a uniform emerging market currency or capital flow rebound in early 2019. The report attributes that gap to heavy investor positioning accumulated during a decade of loose monetary policy in the major economies. It therefore raised its 2019 nonresident inflow forecast only modestly, to $1,260 billion from $1,135 billion in 2018.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Why did a more accommodative Federal Reserve fail to lift many emerging market currencies in early 2019? Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Tariq Khan suggest that accumulated investor positions after years of easy monetary policy limited the response to further easing. Excluding China, the recovery in flows appeared weak, with meaningful first quarter inflows concentrated in Indonesia and Mexico.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Improving financial conditions were not enough to arrest the emerging market growth slowdown in February 2019. Jonathan Fortun and Tariq Khan report a tracker reading of 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted, annualized three month basis, as hard data and business sentiment weakened. They nevertheless anticipated a rebound over the following months.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Fortun and Tariq Khan's IIF analysis connects renewed emerging-market demand to a more accommodative Federal Reserve, easing trade tensions and improved growth sentiment.
詳細を見る英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Updated currency valuations incorporate the large exchange rate, current account and activity changes surrounding the 2018 emerging market selloff. In the February 2019 estimates, the Argentine peso and Turkish lira remained only mildly expensive, while India, Indonesia and South Africa showed greater overvaluation. Emerging Asia, including China, remained substantially undervalued under the framework.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The Federal Reserve’s early 2019 shift away from tightening could revive capital inflows to emerging markets even though investors had already priced in a pause. High frequency flow data were showing a sharp increase as the search for yield resumed. The analysis identifies South Africa as the most crowded positioning case, with Brazil and Russia the least heavily positioned among the markets assessed.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Concern about global growth weakened emerging market portfolio investment at the end of 2018. Jonathan Fortun and Tariq Khan report December inflows of $3.1 billion, comprising $2.9 billion in equities and just $0.2 billion in debt. Their broader net capital flow measure remained negative in November, a separate observation from the December securities figures.
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