Institute of International Finance March 17, 2021

Macro Notes: Pressure on EM Local Markets

· Benjamin Hilgenstock · Elina Ribakova

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About this work

Daily flow indicators signaled substantial emerging market outflows from early March 2021 as rising US long term real interest rates put pressure on assets. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova found local markets already under strain while emerging market credit had been more resilient. Comparing the shock with the taper tantrum, they warned that further stress was possible, especially where large government financing needs met shallow domestic markets.

Abstract

Daily flow indicators signaled substantial emerging market outflows from early March 2021 as rising US long term real interest rates put pressure on assets. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova found local markets already under strain while emerging market credit had been more resilient. Comparing the shock with the taper tantrum, they warned that further stress was possible, especially where large government financing needs met shallow domestic markets.

Cite this work

Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Elina Ribakova (2021). Macro Notes: Pressure on EM Local Markets. Institute of International Finance.