About this work
Higher long yields increasingly reflect the real cost of capital. Real yields explain most of the 2026 increase in the United States and Japan, while inflation compensation plays a larger role in Britain and Germany. Bond and swap markets reveal how fiscal demands compete for savings. Debt management and currency intervention can buy time, but durable relief requires fiscal adjustment and credible inflation control.
Cite this work
Marcello Estevão, Jonathan Fortun (2026). IIF Global Macro Views: What Long Yields Are Pricing. Institute of International Finance.