How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
How bond yields react to unexpectedly strong data can reveal whether markets trust central bank guidance. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun revisit turning points in the 2013 taper tantrum, when positive surprises increasingly pushed US rates higher. Their January 2021 comparison uses that experience to assess the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework.
Read the workFortun discusses the expected return of capital to emerging markets in 2021, with Asia leading the recovery, in Brazilian reporting on how fiscal policy and reforms could affect flows to Brazil.
View detailsIn analysis prepared for BBC News Brasil, Fortun compares Brazil's portfolio-investment recovery with other emerging economies and discusses fiscal credibility and sustainability.
View detailsA broader sample tests whether large currency depreciations support exports. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun lower their real depreciation threshold to 20%, expanding the historical sample from nine to 24 episodes since 1980. Their December 2020 analysis finds median export volume growth doubling in the following years, challenging the view that dollar invoicing neutralizes the trade response.
Read the workReporting on Brazilian interest-rate futures cites Fortun and Robin Brooks on how vaccine progress supported renewed investor flows into emerging markets.
View detailsCoverage cites an IIF assessment by Fortun and Robin Brooks linking encouraging vaccine news with a recovery in demand for emerging-market assets.
View detailsCurrency valuations varied sharply across emerging markets in November 2020 despite broad dollar overvaluation. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun distinguish an undervalued renminbi and several Latin American commodity currencies from overvaluation in Argentina, Egypt and South Africa. China’s rising external surplus supported their contemporary assessment of its currency.
Read the workLarge emerging market currency depreciations predated the pandemic and remained substantial after adjusting for inflation. This October 2020 survey examines how export and import volumes responded ahead of an update to currency fair values. Brazil and Russia showed the most favorable net export developments, while Egypt and Turkey presented a weaker picture.
Read the work