How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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A large euro area current account surplus need not imply an undervalued currency. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks argue that persistent economic slack can suppress imports and inflate the headline external balance. Their November 2018 calculation turns the surplus into a deficit after adjusting for the economic cycle, pointing to possible euro overvaluation rather than an automatic case for appreciation.
Read the workStudies how different OTC derivative instruments and counterparties interact with OECD economic activity, using a vector error-correction model.
Read the workWriting in April 2017, Jonathan Fortun explains how reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could tighten financial conditions alongside interest rate increases. The assessment anticipated asset runoff later that year and removed one rate increase from its 2018 forecast to account for that additional restraint. It also identified changes in the Fed’s Board as a risk to consistent policy communication.
View detailsCoverage of an IIF oil outlook coauthored by Fortun examines how US shale supply could limit the impact of production cuts on prices.
View detailsAnalyzes Bolivia's post-inflation monetary dynamics through alternative time-series estimates of money growth and inflation.
Read the workUses Bolivian data from 1998–2010 to examine the relationship between monetary growth and inflation after stabilization.
Read the workWeak manufacturing had not yet spread substantially to services in September 2019, even in Germany, where the industrial recession was especially severe. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks assess this divergence alongside indicators suggesting that manufacturing was approaching a bottom. Their relatively constructive global outlook remains conditional on services retaining their resilience.
Read the workListed on Jonathan Fortun's IIF author profile.
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