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High public debt and very low bond yields coexisted in Japan under sustained central bank support. The December 2021 comparison asks whether the euro area was moving toward a similar configuration, as the European Central Bank’s role expanded and foreign government bond holdings declined. It presents an emerging parallel between the two monetary systems, rather than a completed convergence.
Read the workTurkey’s November 2021 currency selloff resembled the 2018 crisis in scale but occurred with a stronger external balance. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Ugras Ulku attribute the pressure to continued rate cuts, changing market psychology and the reversal of speculative inflows. They interpret the fall as overshooting and retain their contemporary fair value estimate of 9.50 lira per dollar.
Read the workThe safe haven role of US Treasuries depends partly on the durability of foreign demand. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue in November 2021 that dollar strength reduced foreign central banks’ need to intervene and accumulate Treasury holdings. Persistently weak inflows could leave the market more exposed to global shocks and require renewed Federal Reserve support.
Read the workThe authors examine how central-bank asset purchases can suppress sovereign yields and obscure fiscal constraints, focusing on the euro area's policy-normalization risks.
Read the workDebt drove emerging market portfolio inflows in October 2021, attracting $20.1 billion of the $24.9 billion total. Jonathan Fortun reports $4.8 billion entering equities overall, while Chinese stocks alone received $7.3 billion. That contrast reveals offsetting equity withdrawals outside China beneath the positive aggregate.
Read the workExceptionally long delivery times and large price increases in the United States pointed to strong demand as well as supply constraints in October 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle connect this pattern to unusually large fiscal support. They interpret the disruption as evidence of overheating and retain a 2022 core inflation forecast above the Federal Reserve’s projection at the time.
Read the workThe report reviews large, sustained real currency depreciations since 1980 and their relationship with export volumes, imports and current-account adjustment.
Read the workThe October 2021 bond selloff differed from the rise in yields earlier that year. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find increases spread more broadly across maturities, with a smaller rise in real yields. Greater sensitivity to positive economic surprises suggested renewed focus on recovery and a movement toward, though still short of, conditions seen during the 2013 taper tantrum.
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