October 5, 2021IIF
IIF Capital Flows Tracker - October 2021
This monthly tracker reports September emerging-market portfolio inflows, separating equity and debt investment and identifying the contribution of Chinese equities.
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September 21, 2021IIF
Economic Views: EM Fiscal Tightening Ahead
Ambitious fiscal consolidation plans faced implementation risks as emerging economies began withdrawing pandemic stimulus. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau examine planned deficit reductions for 2022 and 2023, including difficult cuts to primary spending. Their September 2021 assessment anticipated delays in several countries, especially where targets implied spending below levels before the pandemic.
Read the workSeptember 16, 2021IIF
Global Macro Views: The EM Terms of Trade Puzzle
Higher commodity prices were improving exporters’ terms of trade in September 2021 without delivering the currency gains seen after the global financial crisis. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors examine this disconnect in Brazil and other commodity exporters, including Australia. Its breadth challenges an explanation based solely on Brazilian political risk and raises a broader question about why stronger export prices were failing to lift exchange rates.
Read the workSeptember 2, 2021IIF
Briefing Note: DataTalk 5 – Valuing Data
The note summarizes an unattributed DataTalk discussion of data valuation, including common methodologies, business context and cross-border data flows.
Read the workAugust 26, 2021IIF
Global Macro Views: Global Demand for 2020 Debt Issuance
Who absorbed the surge in government borrowing during the pandemic? Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle divide demand for 2020 G10 debt issuance among central banks, foreign investors and other buyers. Their August 2021 comparison finds substantial private demand in the United States and Canada, contrasting with reliance on ECB purchases in the euro periphery and more constrained fiscal room there.
Read the workAugust 12, 2021IIF
Global Macro Views: Fiscal Space and Market Access
Low government bond yields can overstate the fiscal room available after a crisis. Drawing on emerging market experience, this August 2021 analysis defines fiscal space through access to investors willing to absorb new debt at low yields. It argues that deteriorating market access during the pandemic also affected advanced economies, complicating the case for more deficit spending based on yields alone.
Read the workJuly 6, 2021IIF
Economic Views: EM External Financing Needs
Stronger exports and relatively stable debt repayments kept emerging market external financing needs contained in July 2021. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau explain how exports recovering faster than imports supported current account balances. Higher US bond yields remained a vulnerability, but their assessment considered the potential shock more manageable than in 2013.
Read the workJuly 1, 2021IIF
IIF Capital Flows Tracker - July 2021
Emerging markets received $28.1 billion in portfolio inflows in June 2021, according to Jonathan Fortun’s July tracker. Debt attracted $18.9 billion, exceeding the $9.2 billion entering equities. Chinese equities accounted for $5.2 billion of those equity inflows. The breakdown distinguishes the stronger contribution from debt markets from the concentration of equity investment in China.
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