Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Statistical revisions could change the apparent path of US inflation, growth and productivity. A change in measuring financial services could lower core PCE inflation, while broader revisions expose difficulties in tracking a technology-intensive service economy. These measurement choices could influence Federal Reserve judgments about sustainable growth and interest rates, with consequences for Treasury yields, the dollar and emerging-market financing.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The July tracker reports a $17.8 billion net portfolio outflow from emerging markets in June: $28.3 billion of debt inflows were outweighed by $46.1 billion of equity withdrawals. Asian equity selling drove the overall result, while Chinese equities also became a drag. Strong sovereign issuance contrasts with the equity weakness. The note identifies a more hawkish Federal Reserve and renewed oil volatility as risks to dollar liquidity and emerging-market investment.
Fortun assesses Bolivia's new market-referenced official exchange rate and bank selling limits, asking whether the framework can clear the currency market or preserve rationing and parallel pricing.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Japan's policy rate has reached 1% amid firmer underlying inflation and pressure on long-term government bonds. Subsidies suppress headline prices, while wage growth, services inflation and a weaker yen could prompt further tightening. Elevated super-long yields reflect fiscal concerns and changing demand, complicating normalization. Wide estimates of the neutral rate favor a flexible assessment of risks over a mechanical policy rule.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun · Phoebe Feng / Institute of International Finance
Financing the United States' role as a destination for global savings is becoming more costly, the authors argue. Its investment-income advantage is narrowing as market-priced portfolio liabilities become more important and respond to interest rates, valuations and hedging costs. Institutional portfolios increasingly channel savings into US assets. The dollar's central position persists, while the income-account cost of supplying those assets grows.
Fortun estimates the economic costs of prolonged Bolivian blockades and explains how lost output, disrupted logistics and higher household prices narrow the space for stabilization.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The June tracker records $26.6 billion in net emerging-market portfolio outflows during May, reversing April's inflows. Equity withdrawals of $37 billion outweighed $10.4 billion in debt investment, with selling in Korea and India driving the Asian reversal. Chinese equities still attracted funds, but Chinese debt lost investment. The note links the June market selloff, stronger US employment and a more hawkish Bank of Japan to tighter prospective liquidity conditions.
Fortun challenges outside interpretations of Bolivia centered on commodities and protest, arguing that inherited political institutions and contested state authority shape the reform crisis.