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Higher long-term rates are prompting a gradual adjustment in private credit valuations, liquidity and refinancing rather than a broad wave of defaults. AI investment and disruption create widening differences among borrowers and sectors. Negotiation and delayed valuation changes can spread stress over time, making underlying risks harder to observe when refinancing remains expensive.
Read the workRepeated US current-account deficits have accumulated a stock of financial claims that helps explain today's global imbalances. Global demand for dollar assets keeps the United States at the center of financing, but increasingly private investors respond to yields, hedging costs and policy credibility. The authors argue that tariffs cannot resolve an imbalance rooted in saving, fiscal policy and demand for US assets, while maintaining that financing system may become more expensive.
Read the workThe geopolitical shock reaches beyond oil prices into supply-chain reliability, input costs and financing. Energy-price stabilization would not necessarily remove premiums on gas, fertilizer, shipping and intermediate goods. US consumption, AI investment and energy capacity provide more protection than Europe has, without eliminating exposure. For emerging markets, capital allocation increasingly favors stronger reserves, credible policies and lower energy-import or refinancing risks.
Read the workFortun examines Bolivia's bond-market return before an IMF agreement, arguing that fuel costs, inflation, blockades and entrenched political networks complicate the sequence of stabilization.
View detailsSuccessful AI investment could raise the equilibrium real interest rate by increasing desired investment relative to saving. Demand for energy, computing infrastructure, equipment and skilled workers is already rising, while lasting unit-labor-cost reductions are less evident. A lower equilibrium rate would require a weaker-growth scenario, potentially involving sustained labor-market damage. The authors therefore caution against assuming AI will restore the very low real rates of the 2010s.
Read the workThe May tracker records a partial recovery from March's emerging-market selloff, with $58.3 billion in portfolio inflows during April. Debt attracted $51.9 billion, mainly outside China, while equities returned to positive flows. Renewed issuance indicated improving market access before the underlying economic shock had dissipated. The note leaves open whether this was lasting normalization or an initial respite constrained by energy costs, inflation and selective financing.
Read the workUS growth remains resilient but increasingly reliant on a narrow set of supports. Consumption faces weaker savings and real-income buffers, while AI investment is large enough to affect output, corporate finances and electricity demand. Imported equipment reduces the domestic benefit of that spending. Higher oil prices squeeze households and AI infrastructure, while persistent services inflation limits the Federal Reserve's room to support growth.
Read the workPrivate markets face tighter and less predictable financing conditions. Activity continues despite weak exits and slow changes in valuations, while venture capital and private credit become more concentrated and sensitive to costs and rates. Internal liquidity management delays market adjustment as additional financial claims accumulate on the same assets.
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