Por qué la inflación de Bolivia fue la más alta en casi 40 años en 2025 y podría empeorar
Fortun places Bolivia's 2025 inflation surge in historical context and describes its persistence.
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Fortun places Bolivia's 2025 inflation surge in historical context and describes its persistence.
View detailsFortun estimates the capital and operational work needed to restore Venezuelan oil production.
View detailsFortun explains why Venezuela's reduced production base limited the immediate global oil-price impact of military action.
View detailsAccepted for presentation at the LSE International Inequalities Institute and UNU-WIDER workshop on 6 November 2026. Using BOLMOD, the Bolivian module of SOUTHMOD, this paper studies how Bolivia’s fuel subsidy reform and exchange rate unification affect households. It compares the enacted compensation package with alternatives deliverable through existing registries, showing why administrative visibility matters for who receives relief.
Read the workFortun argues that Bolivia's fuel-subsidy reform needs a broader fiscal anchor and that implementing it during December's seasonal demand peak intensifies inflation and uncertainty.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun's public assessment of Bolivia's fuel-subsidy reform, emphasizing the timing and credibility of compensating transfers to households.
View detailsJonathan Fortun argues that removing Bolivia’s fuel subsidies was economically necessary but politically exposed. He examines how higher fuel prices can spread through transport, food costs, exchange rate expectations and household behavior. The essay assesses targeted income support, social conflict and political coordination as conditions for turning an emergency decree into a durable stabilization program.
View detailsThe direction of the 2025 economic cycle proved more predictable than its timing. China’s repeated recovery trades faded, while emerging market resilience relied more on domestic foundations than expected. Europe and Japan moved through uneven stages, requiring reassessment. Low volatility and a relatively contained dollar range persisted despite geopolitical uncertainty, pointing to structural forces beneath the headlines.
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