Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Reciprocal tariffs expose emerging markets through differences in trade barriers and dependence on US demand. Mexico, Thailand and Malaysia stand out in the revised assessment, while other economies face distinct sector risks. First published on February 20, 2025 and updated on March 3 after a data revision, the analysis connects trade exposure with uncertainty over capital flows and exchange rates.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Debt investment drove January’s $35.4 billion in emerging market portfolio inflows. The February 2025 tracker records $45 billion entering debt securities alongside $9.6 billion leaving equities. Chinese equities nevertheless attracted $2 billion, highlighting a contrast between demand for that market and withdrawals from emerging market equities overall.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The dollar’s international role rests on economic scale, financial depth and the stability of US markets. This February 2025 assessment weighs those advantages against geopolitical pressure and efforts to develop alternatives. It also considers how tariffs and migration restrictions could reinforce the dollar through inflation and monetary policy, even as longer term challenges to its dominance persist.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
A temporary tariff reprieve does not remove the economic costs of uncertainty. Following the February 2025 delay of US measures against Canada and Mexico, this analysis examines disruption in autos, agriculture and energy. Currency depreciation could complicate the trade balance response, while inflation risks create difficult choices for the Federal Reserve and its Canadian and Mexican counterparts.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The January 2025 outlook places policy uncertainty at the center of the global economic picture. Potential US tariff and migration changes complicate inflation prospects, while a strong dollar and elevated interest rates constrain emerging markets. Commodity volatility, geopolitical tensions and longer term climate and demographic pressures add further demands on economic strategy.