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Emerging markets ended December 2023 with reported portfolio inflows of $29 billion. Debt attracted $18 billion and equities $11.1 billion, even as Chinese stocks recorded withdrawals of $3.4 billion. Positive investment across both broad asset classes therefore coexisted with continued weakness in Chinese equities.
Read the workFortun reviews a year-end recovery in foreign investment across emerging-market portfolios and the distribution between stocks and bonds.
View detailsWeakness in the euro area extended beyond Germany at the end of 2023. Deteriorating French indicators strengthened the case that market expectations for 2024 growth were too optimistic. The analysis examines the risk of a renewed recession, drawing parallels with the uneven European recovery after the global financial crisis.
Read the workJonathan Fortun discusses geopolitical risks and the possibility that oil prices could reach $100 a barrel in 2024.
View detailsEurope's energy shock created a different growth and inflation outlook from that of the United States. The December 2023 assessment argues that markets had not adequately reflected this divergence in expectations for 2024. It compares the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with earlier episodes that interrupted the euro area's recovery.
Read the workEmerging markets attracted $43.4 billion in portfolio investment during November 2023. Jonathan Fortun separates $28.6 billion of debt inflows from $14.8 billion in equities. Chinese stocks received $0.6 billion, indicating that most equity inflows in this December tracker went to other emerging markets.
Read the workFortun links stronger local-currency debt returns and inflows outside China to easing inflation concerns and expectations of lower interest rates.
View detailsFortun links stronger local-currency debt returns and inflows outside China to easing inflation concerns and expectations of lower interest rates.
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