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Reuters / Investing.com · Quoted expert

Column-Yuan won't be FX reserve currency if no one buys China's bonds: McGeever

Fortun explains why sustained foreign withdrawals from Chinese bonds complicate the yuan's path toward greater use as a reserve currency.

Newsweek Japan (Reuters) · Quoted expert JAOriginal title: 4月は新興国に98億ドルの資金流入、中国は流出＝ＩＩＦ

4月は新興国に98億ドルの資金流入、中国は流出＝ＩＩＦ

Fortun discusses fading benefits from China's reopening and warns that market disruption and political risks could temper subsequent emerging-market inflows.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker - May 2023

Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Emerging markets attracted $9.8 billion in portfolio investment during April 2023. Jonathan Fortun separates $7.7 billion entering debt markets from $2.1 billion entering equities. Chinese equities received $3.8 billion, exceeding the overall equity total and revealing offsetting withdrawals elsewhere.

Global Macro Views: A Preliminary Evaluation of Russia Sanctions

Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance

Financial sanctions can have different effects on countries that need foreign capital and those earning external surpluses. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine how Russia’s 2022 energy windfall supported access to foreign currency despite sanctions. Their May 2023 assessment links that buffer to the rapid easing of domestic financial conditions and the economy’s capacity to sustain the war.

Global Macro Views: Our Brazil and Turkey FX Fair Values

Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance

Brazil’s expanding trade surplus and Turkey’s repeated credit booms point to different currency valuation pressures. This April 2023 assessment defends the Brazilian real estimate despite persistent market weakness and explains how Turkish credit expansion had weakened the lira’s fair value through larger external deficits. A change in Turkey’s growth model was presented as a possibility around the forthcoming election.

Bloomberg Línea · Mention ESOriginal title: Por qué hay caos financiero en Bolivia, según este economista del IIF

Por qué hay caos financiero en Bolivia, según este economista del IIF

The article discusses Fortun's public analysis of Bolivia's financial stress and underlying macroeconomic pressures.

Newsweek Japan (Reuters) · Quoted expert JAOriginal title: 新興国資金流入、3月は年初来低水準　中国は3カ月連続で増加

新興国資金流入、3月は年初来低水準　中国は3カ月連続で増加

Fortun discusses investors' more cautious approach to emerging-market assets as the early-year rally lost momentum.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: April 2023

Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Chinese equities accounted for more than the entire emerging market equity inflow in March 2023. Jonathan Fortun reports $9.4 billion in total portfolio inflows, split between $6.8 billion in equities and $2.6 billion in debt. China’s $7.2 billion equity intake implies offsetting withdrawals elsewhere, revealing uneven participation in the recovery.