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Russia’s exceptional external surplus was fading by early 2023 after an estimated $215 billion energy windfall since mid 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle attribute part of the reversal to the EU oil embargo and G7 price cap. Their March assessment also warns that an expanding tanker fleet outside the cap could weaken its reach.
Read the workUS inflation signals pointed in conflicting directions in March 2023. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find continued pressure in underlying services inflation alongside a retreat in the breadth of price increases. Their assessment rejects both a clear slowdown and an uncontrolled acceleration, supporting a cautious 25 basis point rate increase at the following Federal Reserve meeting.
Read the workFortun warns that restrictive Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy could slow emerging-market inflows and increase demand for dollar hedges.
View detailsA century of US inflation reveals lower volatility without a clear downward trend in its level. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine major inflation surges associated with oil shocks, wars and fiscal expansions. Their February 2023 review notes that earlier spikes generally faded within a few years, sometimes without Federal Reserve rate increases.
Read the workFortun links the strong January rebound in emerging-market portfolio inflows to slower interest-rate increases and improved prospects for new bond issuance, alongside renewed demand for Chinese equities.
View detailsRodrigo Campos reports for Reuters on January 2023's surge in emerging market investment, led by record debt inflows outside China. Jonathan Fortun explains how expectations of slower rate increases and a better outlook reopened access to new borrowing. China's reopening supported equities, but continued Chinese debt outflows and persistent US inflation qualified the recovery.
View detailsChinese creditors’ restructuring terms could materially change recoveries on Sri Lanka’s external bonds. Sergi Lanau and Jonathan Fortun compare scenarios consistent with the country’s debt targets in February 2023. Limited payment moratoria imply lower bond recoveries than broader alignment with Paris Club treatment, illustrating how creditor coordination shapes the outcome for bondholders.
Read the workSeparating the effects of the G7 oil price cap from the EU embargo was essential to judging sanctions in February 2023. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue that the embargo had already widened the discount on Russian crude, leaving the cap nonbinding. They examine the representativeness of tanker traffic data and the limits of conclusions available at that early stage.
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