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Fortun links an extended emerging-market outflow cycle to dollar strength and discusses how inflation and China's outlook could shape subsequent flows.
View detailsExternal bond repayments exposed different financing vulnerabilities in El Salvador and Pakistan in August 2022. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau projected a Salvadoran funding gap of at least 4% of GDP in the second half, with heavy reserve use expected. Pakistan’s smaller potential gap depended critically on official creditors renewing loans and providing support.
Read the workFortun explains that emerging-market withdrawals had become unusually widespread across regions, unlike earlier episodes when inflows elsewhere provided some offset.
View detailsThe July 2022 Sustainable Finance Monitor surveys developments in sustainable finance, including a nature positive economy, the transition away from coal and updates from GFANZ. Coauthored by Jonathan Fortun, the issue also covers policy and regulation, open consultations, new initiatives and tools, and a research roundup. A market section presents a third quarter snapshot of debt and equities.
Read the workThe July 2022 regulatory update brings together developments in cryptoasset capital treatment, climate risks and insurance supervision. Its overview highlights the Financial Stability Board’s communication to the G20, work on climate and bank capital, and assessment of insurance capital aggregation methods. Jonathan Fortun is listed among the contributors to this collective institutional update; the overview does not assign individual sections.
Read the workHeavy speculative positions against the yen created the risk of a sharp reversal in July 2022. The assessment argues that rising recession fears could reduce expected monetary tightening abroad and shift interest rate differentials in Japan’s favor. Markets had yet to price that change, leaving the currency vulnerable to disorderly appreciation if recession concerns intensified.
Read the workGlobal recession risks could reverse the yen’s weakness in the July 2022 assessment. Rising overseas yields had widened interest rate differentials while Bank of Japan yield curve control held domestic yields down. Falling global rates would reverse that pressure, supporting yen appreciation. This was a forecast based on the policy configuration at the time.
Read the workFortun links a fourth consecutive month of emerging-market outflows to the global inflation and interest-rate shock.
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