Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
Identifying the ultimate owners of ships reveals patterns in Russian energy exports that vessel registration and flags can obscure. In October 2022, Jonathan Fortun and coauthors reported that Greek owners accounted for 55 percent of tanker capacity shipping Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, compared with 35 percent in comparable earlier periods. Extending their tracking database to coal also pointed to rising Russian shipments to India and Turkey.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
Energy and trade shocks changed the currency valuation landscape after Russia invaded Ukraine. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle extend their October 2022 assessment to emerging markets, identifying overvaluation in the Egyptian pound and Turkish lira alongside substantial undervaluation in the Brazilian real.
Sergi Lanau · Jonathan Fortun · Gene Ma / Institute of International Finance
The timing of a consumption recovery shaped China’s growth outlook in October 2022. Sergi Lanau, Jonathan Fortun and Gene Ma compare earlier and later rebounds after pandemic restrictions, alongside housing weakness and global recession risks. Their scenarios produced a 2023 growth range of 4.3% to 5.5%, with a central forecast of 4.6%.
Fortun identifies the timing of peak inflation and China's economic outlook as key influences on portfolio flows, as emerging markets recover while Chinese debt continues to lose foreign investment.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau · Gene Ma · María Paola Figueroa · Martín Castellano / Institute of International Finance
China’s bond outflows persisted beyond the record portfolio withdrawals of early 2022. IIF trackers showed exceptionally large outflows in the second quarter, with selling of local currency bonds exceeding the first quarter; nonresident withdrawals slowed in July without reversing. Central banks accounted for only 10% of first quarter bond outflows, indicating that official reserve managers explained a limited share of the selling.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
Reforming Europe’s fiscal rules would not by itself solve the financing problem of peripheral sovereigns. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue in August 2022 that even better estimates of economic slack leave the question of who buys new debt. Their analysis highlights reliance on ECB purchases and the need to bring private investors back.
Fortun explains the dollar's influence on a prolonged run of emerging-market outflows and considers how steadier US interest rates could change the outlook.