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Fortun comments on the policy trade-offs surrounding coordinated yen intervention and the role of Japanese interest rates in supporting exchange-rate stability.
View detailsBloomberg examines US interests surrounding coordinated support for the yen. Jonathan Fortun questions whether the intervention is simply a diplomatic gesture and points to broader American interests in helping Japan support its currency.
View detailsAfter coordinated US-Japan intervention, the note estimates a medium-term yen equilibrium range of 125–138 per dollar, stronger than the market rate near 157. It distinguishes the model's unadjusted signal from a more conservative undervaluation estimate and shows how investment income retained abroad limits currency-market demand. Intervention may alter near-term risks, but sustained convergence would depend on a better policy mix rather than repeated currency purchases.
Read the workBloomberg Línea reports that Latin American banks earned US$ 88.9 billion in 2025, up 31%, according to a Felaban report. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF said net interest margins at large regional banks reached 5.5% versus 3% for emerging market peers excluding China, a gap he called too large to be cyclical. He also said it seems unlikely a 31% profit rise will repeat, with the IIF expecting profits to normalize.
View detailsFortun contrasts Bolivia's exchange-rate announcements and IMF staff agreement with limited usable reserves, arguing that simultaneous policy headlines do not by themselves resolve the external constraint.
View detailsBloomberg Línea reports on the staff level agreement between Bolivia and the IMF for US$1,900 million. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF warned that the main challenge will be sustaining fiscal discipline and reforms once disbursements begin. He said the package could exceed US$5,000 million over the program, noted the deal is tougher than the government's announcement suggests, and argued that US$1,900 million would be small if early reviews fail.
View detailsFortun links Latin American bank profitability to credit penetration, concentration, switching costs and local deposit bases.
View detailsAI is reshaping international trade and capital allocation before its productivity gains are established, the authors argue. Their analysis distinguishes supplying chips and equipment from owning platforms and intellectual property that earn recurring income. Emerging economies may gain productivity through adoption while still paying more for imported hardware and digital services. Building exportable digital capacity could instead attract lasting investment and improve external balances.
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