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The report estimates the relationship between economic growth and job creation in emerging markets, asking whether slower underlying growth can support adequate employment outcomes.
Read the workHow bond yields react to unexpectedly strong data can reveal whether markets trust central bank guidance. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun revisit turning points in the 2013 taper tantrum, when positive surprises increasingly pushed US rates higher. Their January 2021 comparison uses that experience to assess the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework.
Read the workThe pandemic widened emerging market fiscal deficits largely through higher spending, making an economic recovery alone insufficient to restore earlier balances. A new dataset of historical spending surges shows that much of the increase often becomes permanent. The January 2021 analysis therefore frames deficit reduction as a spending adjustment challenge as well as a growth question.
Read the workFortun describes the final quarter of 2020 as the strongest period for emerging-market inflows since early 2013, in an article examining the return of investors and demand for local-currency debt.
View detailsFortun explains the resilience of emerging-market inflows during 2020 through strong demand for Chinese bonds and the recovery of other asset classes.
View detailsA strong December rebound brought emerging market portfolio inflows to $313 billion for 2020. Jonathan Fortun reports $45.9 billion entering during the final month, comprising $29.3 billion in equities and $16.6 billion in debt. Chinese equities accounted for $13.2 billion of December’s inflows into stocks.
Read the workFortun discusses the expected return of capital to emerging markets in 2021, with Asia leading the recovery, in Brazilian reporting on how fiscal policy and reforms could affect flows to Brazil.
View detailsAccess to international bond markets improved for emerging and frontier borrowers during 2020. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors find the recovery concentrated in sovereigns with investment grade ratings, while riskier issuers also regained access. Côte d’Ivoire’s return marked the first issuance from sub Saharan Africa since the pandemic began, with Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria expected to follow in 2021.
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