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Emerging markets responded to the pandemic differently from earlier crises by easing monetary policy to support domestic activity. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors explain how additional liquidity helped governments borrow in local bond markets. Their December 2020 assessment nevertheless finds smaller fiscal support than in advanced economies and anticipates tightening across most emerging markets in 2021.
Read the workIn analysis prepared for BBC News Brasil, Fortun compares Brazil's portfolio-investment recovery with other emerging economies and discusses fiscal credibility and sustainability.
View detailsA broader sample tests whether large currency depreciations support exports. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun lower their real depreciation threshold to 20%, expanding the historical sample from nine to 24 episodes since 1980. Their December 2020 analysis finds median export volume growth doubling in the following years, challenging the view that dollar invoicing neutralizes the trade response.
Read the workFortun links record emerging-market inflows to vaccine optimism and reduced uncertainty after the US election, while emphasizing that the recovery benefits countries unevenly.
View detailsReporting on Brazilian interest-rate futures cites Fortun and Robin Brooks on how vaccine progress supported renewed investor flows into emerging markets.
View detailsCoverage cites an IIF assessment by Fortun and Robin Brooks linking encouraging vaccine news with a recovery in demand for emerging-market assets.
View detailsCurrency valuations varied sharply across emerging markets in November 2020 despite broad dollar overvaluation. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun distinguish an undervalued renminbi and several Latin American commodity currencies from overvaluation in Argentina, Egypt and South Africa. China’s rising external surplus supported their contemporary assessment of its currency.
Read the workChanges in bond holdings reflect both transactions and movements in asset values. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau extend their emerging market government bond database to distinguish those effects in November 2020. Outflows and valuation losses reduced positions in many markets, while China attracted investment without comparable valuation losses and gained portfolio weight.
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