Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Financial sanctions can have different effects on countries that need foreign capital and those earning external surpluses. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine how Russia’s 2022 energy windfall supported access to foreign currency despite sanctions. Their May 2023 assessment links that buffer to the rapid easing of domestic financial conditions and the economy’s capacity to sustain the war.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
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Brazil’s expanding trade surplus and Turkey’s repeated credit booms point to different currency valuation pressures. This April 2023 assessment defends the Brazilian real estimate despite persistent market weakness and explains how Turkish credit expansion had weakened the lira’s fair value through larger external deficits. A change in Turkey’s growth model was presented as a possibility around the forthcoming election.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Chinese equities accounted for more than the entire emerging market equity inflow in March 2023. Jonathan Fortun reports $9.4 billion in total portfolio inflows, split between $6.8 billion in equities and $2.6 billion in debt. China’s $7.2 billion equity intake implies offsetting withdrawals elsewhere, revealing uneven participation in the recovery.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Russia’s exceptional external surplus was fading by early 2023 after an estimated $215 billion energy windfall since mid 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle attribute part of the reversal to the EU oil embargo and G7 price cap. Their March assessment also warns that an expanding tanker fleet outside the cap could weaken its reach.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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US inflation signals pointed in conflicting directions in March 2023. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find continued pressure in underlying services inflation alongside a retreat in the breadth of price increases. Their assessment rejects both a clear slowdown and an uncontrolled acceleration, supporting a cautious 25 basis point rate increase at the following Federal Reserve meeting.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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A century of US inflation reveals lower volatility without a clear downward trend in its level. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine major inflation surges associated with oil shocks, wars and fiscal expansions. Their February 2023 review notes that earlier spikes generally faded within a few years, sometimes without Federal Reserve rate increases.
Sergi Lanau · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Chinese creditors’ restructuring terms could materially change recoveries on Sri Lanka’s external bonds. Sergi Lanau and Jonathan Fortun compare scenarios consistent with the country’s debt targets in February 2023. Limited payment moratoria imply lower bond recoveries than broader alignment with Paris Club treatment, illustrating how creditor coordination shapes the outcome for bondholders.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Separating the effects of the G7 oil price cap from the EU embargo was essential to judging sanctions in February 2023. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue that the embargo had already widened the discount on Russian crude, leaving the cap nonbinding. They examine the representativeness of tanker traffic data and the limits of conclusions available at that early stage.