Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The dollar’s international role rests on economic scale, financial depth and the stability of US markets. This February 2025 assessment weighs those advantages against geopolitical pressure and efforts to develop alternatives. It also considers how tariffs and migration restrictions could reinforce the dollar through inflation and monetary policy, even as longer term challenges to its dominance persist.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
A temporary tariff reprieve does not remove the economic costs of uncertainty. Following the February 2025 delay of US measures against Canada and Mexico, this analysis examines disruption in autos, agriculture and energy. Currency depreciation could complicate the trade balance response, while inflation risks create difficult choices for the Federal Reserve and its Canadian and Mexican counterparts.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
The January 2025 outlook places policy uncertainty at the center of the global economic picture. Potential US tariff and migration changes complicate inflation prospects, while a strong dollar and elevated interest rates constrain emerging markets. Commodity volatility, geopolitical tensions and longer term climate and demographic pressures add further demands on economic strategy.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
A stronger dollar narrows the room for monetary easing outside the United States. This December 2024 assessment contrasts differing policy paths in advanced economies with the growing influence of Federal Reserve decisions on emerging markets. Persistent core inflation, possible tariff effects and fiscal and geopolitical shifts complicate the choices facing central banks.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Japan's 2025 outlook balances a recovery in household demand against inflation and external risks. Wage gains support consumption, while yen depreciation complicates monetary normalization. The December 2024 assessment also examines exposure to US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and investment in automation, green technology and infrastructure.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Stronger productivity and prospective changes in US fiscal, labor and trade policy motivate a reassessment of the neutral interest rate. The December 2024 analysis links higher potential output with persistent inflation pressures and market expectations, arguing that the interest rate baseline should adjust to a more resilient economy.