Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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A sharp deterioration in sentiment toward euro area growth stood out at the April 2022 Spring Meetings. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors describe how expectations moved toward their forecast of just one percent growth that year. Beyond discussions of Russia’s war and energy sanctions, they also identify rising concern about possible US sanctions on China, adding uncertainty to an economy already experiencing capital outflows.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Domestic investors helped emerging markets finance large pandemic fiscal deficits, with foreign buyers and foreign currency issuance playing a smaller role in most economies. This April 2022 analysis explains how a more stable domestic investor base can ease credit and refinancing risks, while warning that government borrowing may displace private credit during recovery. Chile and Colombia stand out for using foreign currency debt and increasing dollarization.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Emerging market portfolios lost $9.8 billion in March 2022, according to Jonathan Fortun’s April tracker. Equity outflows of $6.7 billion exceeded the $3.1 billion withdrawn from debt, with Chinese equities accounting for $6.3 billion of the equity losses. The breakdown identifies China’s stock market as the main concentration of that month’s portfolio withdrawals.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Benjamin Hilgenstock · Jonathan Pingle · Elina Ribakova / Institute of International Finance
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Russia’s oil export earnings remained near historical highs in March 2022 despite sanctions and discounted crude. This analysis separates the effect of higher global oil prices from the transport constraints and price discount facing Russian producers. Together with falling domestic demand, those earnings were expected to sustain a large external surplus. Writing on March 31, Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Jonathan Pingle and Elina Ribakova projected a 2022 current account surplus of $200 billion to $240 billion, compared with $120 billion in 2021. These figures describe the forecast at publication, not the eventual outcome.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Financial markets in March 2022 appeared to assume a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine despite a wide range of possible outcomes. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine the risk of a prolonged conflict. Their scenario analysis links that outcome to higher expected oil prices, more monetary tightening and weaker global equities.
Jonathan Fortun · Benjamin Hilgenstock · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions changed emerging market vulnerabilities unevenly. The March 2022 assessment distinguishes large commodity exporters, positioned to benefit from rising prices, from commodity importers and regional trading partners of Russia and Ukraine, whose exposure increased. It updates the IIF vulnerability map around those contrasting channels.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Benjamin Hilgenstock · Elina Ribakova / Institute of International Finance
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The report considers Russia's recession and the differing effects of the Ukraine war on emerging markets, distinguishing commodity exporters from economies exposed through trade and imports.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Emerging markets received $17.6 billion in portfolio inflows during February 2022. Equities attracted $10.1 billion, exceeding the $7.5 billion allocated to debt, while Chinese equities received $3.2 billion. Published in March, the tracker documents the previous month’s allocation across asset classes.