Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Why were long term US yields so low in June 2021? Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle identified temporary forces: subdued labor market releases and reduced Treasury issuance as the government drew down its cash balance. After Federal Reserve purchases, net issuance turned negative in the second quarter. They expected these supports for bond prices to fade, strengthening the case for higher yields in the second half of 2021.
Jonathan Fortun · Benjamin Hilgenstock · Elina Ribakova / Institute of International Finance
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Rising food and energy prices posed particular inflation risks for emerging markets because these goods weigh heavily in household consumption. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova find only moderate headline inflation increases by June 2021 despite higher import costs. They connect relatively stable expectations with improving central bank credibility, an assessment specific to that stage of the recovery.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Manufacturing surveys in June 2021 showed supply disruptions spreading across countries as longer delivery times and rising input costs prompted firms to raise prices. The analysis saw growing upside risk to its forecast of 2.6% annual core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter, already above the Federal Reserve’s March projection of 2.2%. These figures describe the outlook at publication, not realized inflation.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Supply bottlenecks had reached producer prices, but their transmission to consumer inflation was still unfolding in May 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle expected further increases in core CPI and PCE as delayed effects emerged. They argued at the time that the Federal Reserve should accommodate this inflation bump despite a larger and more persistent supply shock.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Severe manufacturing delays raised the question of whether supply disruptions were reaching consumer prices as economies reopened. The April 2021 comparison found evidence of firms passing costs into higher prices only in the United States. Faster vaccination and reopening were offered as a possible explanation for stronger pricing power there, rather than as an established global pattern.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Severe delivery delays and rising manufacturing input costs challenged expectations of a quick supply chain normalization in April 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle compare the disruption with earlier crisis episodes. Although they expected reopening eventually to ease bottlenecks, their analysis warns that persistence could intensify upward pressure on US yields as economic data recovered.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Strong US economic releases during the 2021 reopening reflected the reversal of the shutdown, with unusually volatile data surprises. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected this turbulence to persist into the summer and put upward pressure on long term US bond yields. Their April assessment identified Turkey as the emerging market most affected, with spillovers also reaching Brazil and Colombia.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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China accounted for almost all emerging market equity inflows in March 2021. Jonathan Fortun reports $10.1 billion in total portfolio investment, including $6.2 billion in debt and $3.9 billion in equities. Chinese stocks received $3.8 billion, exposing the narrow geographic base of the equity recovery.