Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Exchange rate changes alone can misrepresent the pressure on emerging market currencies during a crisis. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks combine currency movements with foreign reserve losses to compare the COVID shock in April 2020. Their exchange market pressure indices suggest that observed falls in the Turkish lira and Egyptian pound understated the underlying strain, while Mexico’s larger peso decline reflected more pressure being absorbed directly by the exchange rate.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Current account adjustment did not eliminate emerging markets’ funding pressures at the start of the pandemic. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau examine debt repayments relative to reserves, highlighting South Africa, Turkey and Ukraine in their April 2020 assessment. They argue that the scale of IMF emergency lending without conditions was too small relative to the financing needs they identified.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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The rapid escalation of the pandemic prompted another downgrade to the global outlook in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks cut their growth forecast below 1% as falling oil prices, credit stress and disrupted capital markets amplified the shock. They then expected first half recessions in the United States, euro area and Japan, followed by a recovery later that year.
Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Real time indicators showed an exceptionally severe flight of capital from emerging markets as the pandemic escalated in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau compare the outflows with earlier global and Asian crises. They anticipated reserve losses and narrower current account deficits as access to external financing contracted.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
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Repeated credit expansions supported Turkey’s growth while weakening its external balance. Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Ugras Ulku trace how the 2017 boom widened the current account deficit ahead of the 2018 sudden stop, and how renewed lending in early 2019 again worsened external dynamics. Writing in February 2020, they warned that another expansion appeared underway, adding balance of payments risks with likely smaller growth benefits.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Weak investment threatened to make the emerging market growth slowdown more persistent in January 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks survey investment across emerging economies and find aggregate growth in investment near zero. Turkey, Argentina and Mexico showed especially pronounced weakness, linking the broader stagnation debate to the accumulation of productive capacity.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Weak emerging market growth reflected two different problems: acute crises and a more persistent investment slowdown. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks distinguish these groups in their January 2020 assessment. They focus on Mexico and South Africa, where weak investment risked turning a recent slowdown into a structural constraint on growth.