Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Recession fears, trade tensions and weak emerging market currencies framed the macroeconomic questions for the IIF’s October 2019 Annual Meetings. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks argued that fears of a US and global recession were overstated and that limited supply chain damage left scope for a rebound after a trade truce. They also examined why a positioning overhang was preventing emerging market currencies from benefiting as usual from a more accommodative Federal Reserve.
Gene Ma · Jonathan Fortun · Reza Siregar / Institute of International Finance
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Which Asian economies could absorb production shifting away from China under US tariffs? Gene Ma, Jonathan Fortun and Reza Siregar compare production structures using input and output tables in October 2019. Many economies specialized in commodities and simpler consumer goods, while Korea and Taiwan stood out for their presence in sophisticated manufacturing.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Slower US job creation in October 2019 did not necessarily signal an approaching recession. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks placed the deceleration within a longer trend of tightening labor conditions. Their interpretation was that a maturing labor market could generate fewer additional jobs without implying a deterioration in the broader economic cycle.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Portfolio investment returned strongly to emerging markets in September 2019. Jonathan Fortun reports debt inflows of $27.6 billion and a simultaneous recovery in equities. The tracker also distinguishes these securities flows from the broader net capital flow measure, which recorded $30.9 billion entering emerging markets in August.
Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Argentina faced persistently large public financing requirements in September 2019. Jonathan Fortun, Martín Castellano and Sergi Lanau explain why substantial debt holdings within the public sector did not eliminate refinancing risk. Most immediate debt service fell on bonds governed by domestic law, an important distinction for understanding the financing challenge.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Retail job losses in September 2019 reflected the declining market share of physical stores without eliminating their efficiency gap with online commerce. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks distinguished that sectoral adjustment from stronger overall US hiring, then running near 150,000 jobs per month against roughly 80,000 needed to keep unemployment stable. They saw scope for unemployment to fall further, rather than treating retail contraction as evidence of general labor market weakness.
Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a reversal signal in emerging market portfolio flows on August 6, 2019. Gregory Basile and Jonathan Fortun stress that the withdrawal extended broadly across emerging markets. A bilateral trade shock was therefore transmitting through international investment beyond the two economies at its center.
Boban Markovic · Jonathan Fortun · Sergi Lanau / Institute of International Finance
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Debt sustainability risks differed sharply across emerging markets in July 2019. Boban Markovic, Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau distinguish high and rising debt in Brazil and South Africa from refinancing pressure linked to large debt service in Egypt, Lebanon and Pakistan. Their systematic assessment highlights fiscal vulnerabilities beyond headline debt ratios alone.