From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
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January brought the strongest start to a year in the tracker’s record, with emerging market portfolio inflows estimated at $98.8 billion in the February release. Both bonds and equities attracted capital across regions. New issuance, favorable dollar conditions and resilient local debt markets supported the acceleration despite geopolitical uncertainty.
Read the workGlobal growth in 2026 increasingly depends on a US expansion powered by productivity and investment in artificial intelligence. Yet stronger output does not translate proportionately into jobs. Capital intensity, semiconductor concentration and policy frictions reshape the expansion, while geopolitical risks operate through confidence and asset pricing. The result is growth with a weaker employment footprint.
Read the workImproved repayment capacity helps explain why emerging market sovereign spreads have narrowed even with elevated US yields. Stronger balance sheets and favorable rating changes point to declining credit risk rather than a rally driven solely by easier global rates. As returns from carry mature, the analysis anticipates a possible rotation of inflows toward issuance in foreign currencies.
Read the workEmerging market portfolios ended December with $36.7 billion in inflows, reversing November’s $5.4 billion withdrawal. Bonds accounted for most of the recovery, attracting $29.4 billion, while equities received $7.3 billion. Asia and Latin America led the rebound, with debt providing the more dependable source of demand as equity investors remained selective.
Read the workThe direction of the 2025 economic cycle proved more predictable than its timing. China’s repeated recovery trades faded, while emerging market resilience relied more on domestic foundations than expected. Europe and Japan moved through uneven stages, requiring reassessment. Low volatility and a relatively contained dollar range persisted despite geopolitical uncertainty, pointing to structural forces beneath the headlines.
Read the workLooking back at 2025 reveals where familiar indicators obscured deeper change. Tariffs endured but reached prices unevenly, and strong emerging market debt returns complicated currency signals. Domestic reforms supported resilience, artificial intelligence gained wider macroeconomic importance, and divergent state labor markets challenged the picture of US stability suggested by national totals.
Read the workEquity withdrawals tipped emerging market portfolio flows into negative territory in November. The December release estimates net outflows of $3.9 billion, as $15 billion of debt inflows could not offset $18.9 billion leaving equities. Gulf credit remained a relative bright spot, combining tight spreads with firm demand despite the broader reversal.
Read the workThe December 2025 outlook projects global growth near 3.1 percent in 2026, sustained by shifts in activity across advanced and emerging economies. Nonresident capital flows ease from their peak but remain near $1.13 trillion. China’s savings, rising resident outflows and changing commodity balances reshape where capital moves. This edition also expands country coverage from 26 to 37.
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