How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
503 results
Fortun describes the shift from large Chinese public lending to repayment, renegotiation and limited new financing in Latin America.
View detailsDigital production is becoming a dividing line among emerging markets. Only a small group can export digital activity at scale, with technology services the most dynamic component. Foreign direct investment is already responding to this capacity, while portfolio flows remain more closely tied to liquidity and macroeconomic conditions. Digital export strength may increasingly influence where lasting investment goes.
Read the workA weaker exchange rate does not necessarily mean a weaker international role for the dollar. Better emerging market fundamentals and easier dollar funding support local currencies and returns, while gold reserve valuations can exaggerate apparent diversification. Meanwhile, stablecoins extend informal dollar use. The analysis argues that dollar dominance is adapting to new channels rather than simply receding.
Read the workFortun explains why falling prices in Panama and Costa Rica can indicate weak demand rather than improved welfare.
View detailsFortun discusses the institutions and policy consistency that could sustain investor confidence in Mexico, including fiscal management, the central bank and Pemex.
View detailsGrowth across the United States, Europe and Japan rests on increasingly narrow sources of strength. US investment in artificial intelligence masks softer labor and demand conditions, Europe struggles with weak investment, and Japan normalizes policy cautiously. Lower US yields may help emerging markets, but sustained inflows depend on credible fiscal and macroeconomic frameworks rather than favorable financing alone.
Read the workArtificial intelligence and digital payments are moving technological disruption into the center of macroeconomic analysis. Introducing a series on growth, trade and capital allocation, this overview examines early signals from US investment spending and international financial flows. AI investment is already contributing to activity, although its magnitude remains difficult to estimate, making consistent measurement essential.
Read the workFortun assesses the financing and credibility constraints on the incoming Bolivian government's gradual stabilization plans.
View details