How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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The article cites Fortun's public assessment of Bolivia's fuel-subsidy reform, emphasizing the timing and credibility of compensating transfers to households.
View detailsJonathan Fortun argues that removing Bolivia’s fuel subsidies was economically necessary but politically exposed. He examines how higher fuel prices can spread through transport, food costs, exchange rate expectations and household behavior. The essay assesses targeted income support, social conflict and political coordination as conditions for turning an emergency decree into a durable stabilization program.
View detailsThe direction of the 2025 economic cycle proved more predictable than its timing. China’s repeated recovery trades faded, while emerging market resilience relied more on domestic foundations than expected. Europe and Japan moved through uneven stages, requiring reassessment. Low volatility and a relatively contained dollar range persisted despite geopolitical uncertainty, pointing to structural forces beneath the headlines.
Read the workFortun assesses oil supply, demand and year-end prices amid uncertainty over restrictions on Venezuelan crude.
View detailsFortun discusses why removing fuel subsidies requires wider fiscal, exchange-rate and institutional reforms.
View detailsFortun assesses oil supply, demand and year-end prices amid uncertainty over restrictions on Venezuelan crude.
View detailsFortun contrasts Latin America's relatively stable November portfolio flows with broader emerging-market equity outflows.
View detailsLooking back at 2025 reveals where familiar indicators obscured deeper change. Tariffs endured but reached prices unevenly, and strong emerging market debt returns complicated currency signals. Domestic reforms supported resilience, artificial intelligence gained wider macroeconomic importance, and divergent state labor markets challenged the picture of US stability suggested by national totals.
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