How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
US inflation remains difficult to dislodge from the 3 percent range in this October 2025 assessment. Shelter and healthcare sustain services inflation, while goods prices follow divergent paths. Firm spending and elevated household inflation expectations complicate cautious Federal Reserve easing. The uneven composition of price increases makes apparent progress toward the target less convincing.
Marcello Estevão · Candice Reddy · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Sub Saharan Africa faces a changing financing landscape as trade tensions intensify and traditional donors reduce aid. Investment from China, India, Gulf countries and African investors opens new possibilities in minerals, renewable energy and digital infrastructure. Realizing those gains depends on governance, regional integration and credible fiscal policies that can attract lasting capital amid greater volatility.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
National employment indicators increasingly conceal differences across US states. Diverging participation, unemployment and immigration patterns change how labor market slack should be interpreted. Reduced arrivals of foreign workers place uneven pressure on labor supply and distort wage and unemployment signals. These regional differences make comparisons with earlier cycles less reliable and complicate Federal Reserve policy calibration.