How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Fortun compares fuel-subsidy reforms abroad with Bolivia's constraints, warning that price shocks and weak political capacity make the impending adjustment socially difficult.
View detailsBorrowing against securities can accelerate a market correction without predicting when one will begin. This analysis emphasizes changes in margin debt rather than its record level, tracing how collateral losses and forced deleveraging interact with tightening liquidity. A US unwind can transmit stress abroad through emerging market currencies, credit spreads and capital flows.
Read the workFortun argues that unsterilized domestic gold purchases expand liquidity and transmit fiscal strain into inflation, exchange-rate distrust and deteriorating monetary control.
View detailsFortun connects the political transition with opaque gold-backed financing and growing pension-fund exposure to public debt, arguing that these arrangements restrict future policy choices.
View detailsPrivate US hiring had slowed sharply by August 2025, with employment gains increasingly confined to healthcare and education. Immigration restrictions reduced labor supply, helping keep unemployment low even as job creation weakened. Inflation also eroded real income growth. Together, these forces left the Federal Reserve balancing a softer labor market against price pressure from tariffs.
Read the workFortun discusses de facto dollarization pressures as payment constraints and foreign-currency shortages weaken Bolivia's economy, stressing the need for a credible stabilization framework.
View detailsFortun assesses Bolivia's exchange-rate pressure and the constraints facing the next president.
View detailsTariff costs begin reaching import and producer prices as inventory cushions run down, while immigration restrictions complicate the reading of US employment data. Manufacturing and private construction weaken even as overall demand appears resilient. This August 2025 assessment asks whether renewed inflation could arrive before growth slows enough to give the Federal Reserve room to ease.
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