How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Bolivia’s IMF program has advanced on exchange rate reform and central bank financing, but fuel pricing remains its hardest political test. Jonathan Fortun examines how currency depreciation and import costs have eroded earlier subsidy reforms, arguing that postponement can shift the adjustment from higher pump prices to shortages. The essay connects reform sequencing with the credibility of the 2027 budget.
View detailsFortun explains how weak mechanisms for correcting policy deviations contribute to elevated sovereign risk premiums.
View detailsFortun relates low sovereign risk premiums to policy frameworks and credit ratings beyond headline debt ratios.
View detailsShort-term dollar weakness need not signal a lasting loss of the currency's international role. The analysis finds gradual reserve diversification alongside continued dominance in trade invoicing, funding and payments, while local-currency borrowing still leaves economies exposed to US yields and hedging costs. Treasury market liquidity and collateral functions remain central. Changes in payment infrastructure alone do not establish displacement; that would require broader evidence across reserves, currency trading and invoicing.
Read the workA changing investor base is adding pressure to Japan's longest bonds as the Bank of Japan reduces its purchases. Weaker demand from life insurers and greater foreign participation make yields more sensitive to global bond-market conditions, even after reductions in super-long issuance. Stabilizing long-term borrowing costs may therefore require domestic demand, changes in issuance maturities or direct bond-market measures alongside decisions about the policy rate.
Read the workFortun's data examines how higher US Treasury yields transmit differently across Latin American markets.
View detailsFortun explains how rising US Treasury yields reach Latin American local bond markets and why investor bases, duration and carry matter for the transmission.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun's warning that Bolivia must sustain fiscal discipline and reforms after IMF disbursements begin.
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