How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
Research and public conversation
503 results
August 11, 2026
Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert Original title: Brecha de la deuda pública se amplía: estos países de América Latina están entre los más endeudados del mundo
Bloomberg Línea reports that Bolivia, Brazil and Suriname rank among the 30 most indebted economies in the world, based on IMF data compiled by the IIF. Jonathan Fortun said the region stopped behaving as a bloc, since what worsened is the dispersion between countries, not average debt. He argued Bolivia faces a payments problem rather than a debt problem, and flagged Ecuador as looking comfortable at 52.8% of GDP when it is not.
Reuters analysis examines how Bolivia's President Rodrigo Paz is pushing market oriented reforms and a $1.9 billion IMF program while his coalition fractures. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF said the $1.9 billion does not fundamentally change Bolivia's solvency arithmetic. He argued the program would ease immediate financing pressures but not restore debt sustainability alone, and that the government must cut fuel subsidy costs, curb support for state firms and narrow the deficit.
Bloomberg Línea reports that Bolivia, Brazil and Suriname rank among the 30 economies with the highest public debt relative to GDP, based on IMF data analyzed by the IIF. Jonathan Fortun said the region no longer acts as a bloc, since what worsened is the dispersion between countries rather than average debt. He said the IMF projects Brazil's debt rising to 106.5% of GDP in 2031, a slow deterioration rather than a crisis, and described Mexico's tension as cost and contingent liabilities.
Fortun contrasts Bolivia's historical currency redenomination with its current exchange-rate adjustment, using an equilibrium-rate framework to argue that nominal change can precede deeper economic repair.
Fortun comments on the policy trade-offs surrounding coordinated yen intervention and the role of Japanese interest rates in supporting exchange-rate stability.
Bloomberg examines US interests surrounding coordinated support for the yen. Jonathan Fortun questions whether the intervention is simply a diplomatic gesture and points to broader American interests in helping Japan support its currency.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
After coordinated US-Japan intervention, the note estimates a medium-term yen equilibrium range of 125–138 per dollar, stronger than the market rate near 157. It distinguishes the model's unadjusted signal from a more conservative undervaluation estimate and shows how investment income retained abroad limits currency-market demand. Intervention may alter near-term risks, but sustained convergence would depend on a better policy mix rather than repeated currency purchases.
Bloomberg Línea reports that Latin American banks earned US$ 88.9 billion in 2025, up 31%, according to a Felaban report. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF said net interest margins at large regional banks reached 5.5% versus 3% for emerging market peers excluding China, a gap he called too large to be cyclical. He also said it seems unlikely a 31% profit rise will repeat, with the IIF expecting profits to normalize.