How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
How much of the announced US tariff agenda would become policy? This November 2024 analysis contrasts markets' apparent expectation of bargaining tactics with the consequences of full implementation. Supply chain disruption, weaker global growth and possible Chinese retaliation would create uneven risks and opportunities across emerging economies.
Read the workFortun links Latin America's productivity gaps to informality, human capital, technology adoption and structural barriers.
View detailsA conversation with Clay Lowery about Japan's elections, monetary policy and international implications.
View detailsDiscussions at the 2024 Annual Meetings highlighted a resilient expansion alongside unresolved financial and geopolitical risks. Federal Reserve and ECB easing promised support for liquidity, but fiscal choices and political developments could limit further cuts. China's subdued growth, volatile capital flows and oil prices complicated the outlook for emerging economies.
Read the workThe October 2024 global outlook turns on the interaction of policy shifts, geopolitical shocks and unexpected economic data. US fiscal deficits and possible oil price increases threaten disinflation, while China's weak recovery affects trade and commodities. Emerging economies remain resilient, but domestic inflation and divergent policy paths leave the balance of growth risks unsettled.
Read the workFortun traces Bolivia's exchange-rate arrangements and the policies that encouraged use of the domestic currency.
View detailsParaguay, Ethiopia, Vietnam and Poland illustrate how different starting conditions call for different growth strategies. Agricultural development, public investment, market reforms and European integration each played distinct roles. The comparison emphasizes international trade and investment alongside domestic reforms, while identifying the institutional, innovation and demographic challenges that remain.
Read the workFederal Reserve easing can attract capital to emerging markets and strengthen their currencies, improving the appeal of local assets. The September 2024 analysis also examines the tradeoffs: currency appreciation can hurt exporters, while dependence on mobile capital creates vulnerability when US monetary policy eventually tightens again. Effects differ across asset classes.
Read the work